Nationally, existing home sales dipped 3.6% in March to a 3.98 million annualized pace — soft, but not surprising given the economic crosswinds in play. The silver lining? The median existing home price climbed to a new all-time high for March at $408,800, showing that well-priced homes continue to attract serious buyers. Total inventory edged up to 1.36 million units, representing a 4.1-month supply — still tighter than a healthy market, but the most available supply we've seen in a while. HousingWire notes that the market is running in two speeds: well-priced homes are moving in roughly 63 days, while overpriced listings are languishing at 121+ days. Pricing strategy has never been more important.

Mortgage rates ticked down from their early-April high of 6.46% to close last week at 6.30% according to Freddie Mac's PMMS survey. That's still well above the 6.09% low we saw earlier in 2026, but the trend is moving in the right direction. The main culprit keeping rates elevated: rising oil prices driven by U.S.-Iran tensions, which are stoking inflation fears and making the Fed more cautious about cutting. Analysts at MPA Mag and Fannie Mae both project rates will hover in the 6.0%–6.5% range for most of 2026, with gradual relief possible later in the year if inflation cooperates. Bottom line: if you're waiting for 5% rates, that's likely a 2027+ story. Today's buyer who locks in at 6.3% and refinances later is often in a stronger position than the buyer who keeps waiting.

The biggest economic story this week is oil. WTI crude oil surged more than 6% today to $89/barrel as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated over fresh attacks near the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping lane. Brent crude pushed as high as $96/barrel. Why does this matter for housing? Higher oil prices feed into inflation, and higher inflation makes the Federal Reserve less likely to cut interest rates — which in turn keeps mortgage rates elevated. The Fed held its target rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March meeting, and the next FOMC meeting is April 28–29. Markets are now pricing in just one rate cut for all of 2026. On the jobs front, March's report was a modest win: 178,000 jobs added, unemployment down to 4.3%. But nearly all gains were in healthcare — broader hiring remains sluggish. GDP growth is running at a tepid 1.3% projected pace for Q1 2026. All told, the economy is holding on, but the path to lower mortgage rates in the near term is getting narrower.

The Bay Area is in a league of its own right now. San Francisco's median home price surged 14.4% year-over-year in March to $1.7 million — the largest jump in 8 years, and the biggest gain among the 50 most populous U.S. metros. The AI industry boom, combined with major tech companies enforcing return-to-office mandates, is bringing buyers back to SF in force. Neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Noe Valley, Bernal Heights, SoMa, and Mission Bay are all seeing strong demand and fast-moving inventory.

Zooming out to the county level, the picture is nuanced. Santa Clara County is holding near a $1.83M median with just 1.5 months of supply — classic Silicon Valley tightness. San Mateo County sits around 1.7 months of inventory. Marin County (median $1.47M) and Contra Costa County (median $840K) have seen some year-over-year softening, offering comparative value for buyers who are flexible on location. The East Bay (Alameda County) continues to attract buyers priced out of SF and the Peninsula, with more options and relatively competitive prices.

The bottom line for the Bay Area: This is, and remains, a seller's market. With inventory at 1.2 months in SF and multiple offers still common on well-priced homes, buyers need to be fast, prepared, and strategic — and sellers are holding more leverage than at any point in recent years.

Whether you're buying, selling, or just thinking about making a move — I'd love to connect and help you put together a plan. Don't wait until you're ready to act; the preparation we do now is what creates success when opportunity shows up.

As always, thank you for being part of the Nest Mortgage community. Whether you're actively searching for a home, planning a future move, or just staying informed — I'm genuinely here to help. The Bay Area market rewards those who are prepared, and I'd love to be part of your preparation.